We assume that you saw the recent media report that the U.S. intelligence community has alerted law enforcement to potential al-Qa’ida attacks in the U.S. planned for Monday, November 7, the day before Election Day. This threat is reportedly still being assessed and its credibility has not yet been validated. However, the counterterrorism and homeland security communities remain vigilant and well-postured to defend against attacks here in the United States.

According to a statement from the FBI, the Bureau shares and assesses intelligence on a daily basis and will continue to work closely with law enforcement and intelligence community partners to identify and disrupt any potential threat to public safety. The NYPD Counterterrorism Bureau continues to work closely with federal, state, local, and private sector partners to maintain situational awareness of the current threat environment.

For more information on the current situation scroll down below the “What should we do?” section.

What should we do? 

In police speak, we should “remain vigilant” and “maintain situational awareness of the current threat environment.” How does that translate to your site? What should you be doing? You should “step up” your security profile and maintain heightened vigilance through the election and the days thereafter.

• Pre-determine how you will step up your game.  Don’t wait for an emergency. Consider the steps you should take when the experts advise you to go to “high alert”, e.g., add guards, close doors, more-thorough bag checks.
• Increase visible security measures. Someone planning an attack should look at your facility, conclude that it is defended and decide to go elsewhere. While the presence of armed security and law enforcement personnel and the placement of security checkpoints do not guarantee that an attack will be averted or interrupted, their presence can enable the timely discovery and quick resolution of potential threats and reduce the lethality of terrorist attacks.
• Test your systems. OK, you’ve identified systems to screen your mail, respond to bomb threats and suspicious objects and you have an active shooters plan. The key question is: “Will they work in reality?” Do your panic buttons function? Test them (after you first alert the alarm company). Have you had tabletop exercises and drills covering multiple hazards? How can you make sure that your entire staff and constituencies are on their collective toes?
• Check in with your local police. Reach out to your local police and make sure that they know about the times of services, events, school arrivals and dismissals. Offer them the opportunity to get to know your programs, your rhythms, your people and your building. Ask them for suggestions as to how to make your people safer.
• If you see something, say something. Think how to build a culture of security, because security is everybody’s business. If any of your staff, students, volunteers, congregants or clients sees or hears something suspicious they should feel comfortable to report it to the appropriate person in your facility and the information should be passed on to the police. Make sure all of the key staff have the right contact info in your jurisdiction. (In NYC, 1-888-NYC-SAFE/in NYS, 1-866-SAFE-NYS).

The information below is adapted from NYPD Shield’s analysis from the NYPD Counterterrorism, Bureau Terrorism Threat Analysis Group.

Foreign violent extremists

Recent propaganda produced by al-Qa’ida’s Yemen-based affiliate, al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), have made reference to the upcoming U.S. presidential election; however, the group, which has previously launched multiple plots against the U.S. homeland, has not voiced any specific threats in these publications.

When commenting on the prospect of either a Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump presidency, a March 2016 issue of the group’s Arabic-language al-Masra newsletter argued that a Clinton victory would mean “an extension of the policy of Obama and the Democrats in the region,” while Trump being elected would mean “a drastic change in American policy towards Muslims, since the hostility that Trump bears and the Islamophobia from which he suffers will have a huge impact in the conflict in the Middle East region and the Muslim countries in general.”

Meanwhile, in May 2016, an issue of the group’s English-language Inspire magazine included a reference to the presidential election by the magazine’s editor-in-chief, who argued that the outcome was irrelevant since it will not impact “inhuman American policies in Islamic lands.” Historically, there have been other indications that al-Qa’ida and its sympathizers have viewed elections as significant events.

For example, the 2004 Madrid bombings were carried out by an al-Qa’ida-inspired cell three days before Spain’s general elections. The coordinated blasts, which targeted Madrid’s commuter railway system, killed 192 people and wounded an estimated 2,000 others.

Meanwhile, declassified documents recovered by U.S. forces in the May 2011 raid on Usama Bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, revealed that the topic of U.S. elections was discussed among al-Qa’ida’s leadership in the context of the group planning its propaganda releases.

Domestic violent extremists

The 2016 presidential campaign has included unprecedented divisive political rhetoric, sparking occasional violence from supporters of both the Democratic and Republican candidates. Throughout the campaign, a wide range of organizations—from non-profits to media outlets—as well as the candidates and delegates have received harassing messages, including threats of violence. Election Day 2016 comes at a time of heightened tension throughout the country, including perceived public unrest over law enforcement activity and mistrust of government institutions. Exacerbating this tense political climate are the recent assertions that the 2016 election may be “rigged,” potentially undermining the legitimacy of the presidential election process. Several domestic armed militias and extremist groups, including the Ku Klux Klan (KKK) and prominent anti-government forces such as the Oath Keepers, have used the accusation of election fraud to announce their intention to overtly, or covertly, monitor voting sites, stoking concerns that organizations may intimidate or coerce voters at the polls.

The election is also taking place at a time of elevated concern over attacks in the west perpetrated by terrorist organizations and their sympathizers such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and al-Qa’ida, both of which have experienced recent territorial defeats and leadership losses. Of note, an April 2016 issue of Dabiq, ISIL’s English-language magazine, specifically named Huma Abedin, Clinton’s vice chairwoman for her campaign, as a target for assassination. The continual threat of homegrown violent extremism remains a key concern as evidenced by the recent bombings in Seaside Park, NJ, Manhattan’s Chelsea neighborhood, and the attempted bombing in Elizabeth, NJ. Though the suspect in these incidents was apprehended and there is no indication that he was part of a broader conspiracy, the September 17 blasts serve as a reminder that New York City remains a top target for extremists.

Sources

• “Sources: U.S. intel warning of possible al Qaeda attacks in U.S. Monday,” CBS News, November 4, 2016.
• Tharoor, Ishaan, “Al-Qaeda’s analysis of the U.S. election is actually pretty accurate,” Washington Post, March 30, 2016.
• “Letters from Abbottabad: Bin Ladin Sidelined?,” Combatting Terrorism Center (CTC) at West Point, May 3, 2012.
• “Editor’s Letter,” Inspire Magazine, No. 15, al-Malahem Media, May 2016.

A recent federal bulletin urged state and local law enforcement to be on high alert ahead of 9/11 anniversary. It explained that that terrorists – specifically those aligned with
ISIS – “may be inspired or directed to conduct attacks against events associated with 9/11 memorial commemorations or other mass gathering targets timed to this date.” The report notes the symbolism associated with the somber anniversary as a motivating factor for a potential terrorist attack.

While the FBI reports that it is “unaware of any specific, credible information” of a plot against the U.S. homeland (or against Jewish communal targets), Daesh (aka “ISIS”) and Al Qaeda propaganda have repeatedly tried to inspire attacks by individuals  — such as the ones in Paris, Nice, Istanbul and Orlando — using firearms, edged weapons, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and commercial vehicles. Federal analysts note that there is an  “ongoing heightened threat environment.”

Heightened security measures should be in place through 9/11 and through the Jewish holiday season (Remember: the potential attacker in Aventura, FL was aware of the Jewish calender and planned to strike on a Jewish holiday in order to maximize the impact of his attack). Many of the terrorists responsible for recent incidents engaged in “pre-operational surveillance”, i.e., they checked out the site while planning their attack. Consider the following elements of heightened vigilance:

• Increase visible security measures. Someone planning an attack may look at your facility, conclude that it is defended and decide to go elsewhere. Several recent incidents also underscore that the presence of armed security and law enforcement personnel and the placement of security checkpoints do not guarantee that an attack will be averted or interupted. Nevertheless, their presence can enable the timely discovery and quick resolution of potential threats and reduce the lethality of terrorist attacks.
• Review your policies and procedures. How else can you send a signal to outsiders that your facility is a tough target? For example, does your staff do regular inspections of your facility looking for something that, “Just doesn’t look right?” If not, start now. If they do, should you increase the frequency. Review JCRC’s Sample Access Policies and Procedures to identify additional steps.
• Test your systems. OK, you’ve identified systems to screen your mail, respond to bomb threats and suspicious objects and you have an active shooters plan. The key question is: “Will they work in reality?” Do your panic buttons function? Test them (after you first alert the alarm company). Have you had tabletop exercises and drills covering multiple hazards? How can you make sure that your entire staff and constituencies are on their collective toes?
• Check in with your local police. For most Jewish organizations, September is the start of a new program year. Reach out to your local police. Offer them the opportunity to get to know your programs, your rhythms, your people and your building. Ask them for suggestions as to how to make your people safer.
• If you see something, say something. Think how to build a culture of security, because security is everbody’s business. If any of your staff, students, volunteers, congregants or clients sees or hears something suspicious they should feel comfortable to report it to the appropriate person in your facility and the information should be passed on to the police. In NYC the number is 1-888-NYC-SAFE. Elsewhere in New York State the number is 1-866-SAFE-NYS. Every tip is investigated.

Screen shot from Hebrew language Islamic State video.

Stratfor, the respected, global intelligence firm,  just published an insightful analytical report, The Islamic State Weighs in on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, with the following forecasts:

• Lone wolf attacks against Jewish targets outside of Israel will increase in the coming weeks.
• Anti-Semitic violence will provoke reprisal attacks and vigilantism. 
• Mimicking a recent string of knife attacks in Israel, assailants elsewhere in the world who sympathize with the Palestinian cause may use similar tactics.

The Stratfor analysis follows Washington Post and Haaretz reports of a series of Islamic State videos praising the attacks in Israel and calling for more. One of the videos featured a Hebrew-speaking, knife-wielding Islamic State fighter who labeled the Jewish people the primary enemy and called for their deaths in Israel and throughout the world. Some of the videos made their way through social media outlets accompanied by the hashtag #BeheadtheJew. There is also an ADL document describing the videos.

See these free, online courses from the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, University of Maryland, for a deeper understanding of rise of the Islamic State.

While the almost daily attacks in Israel are deeply disturbing, we should be mindful that on December 7, 2014,  NYC evidently experienced its own “lone wolf” knife attack at Chabad Headquarters in Crown Heights. Even though law enforcement sources did not find that the perpetrator had any terrorist connections, the incident is a haunting reminder of what could happen here.

While law enforcement authorities do not know of any specific threats, Jewish institutions should review their existing security precautions and take appropriate steps to safeguard their constituents.

Think about:

• Police relationships. Remember, one of the most important recommendations is to establish a close, working relationship with your local police authorities. They should know about your services, school schedules, special meetings, etc. Be in contact with the community affairs officer of your local precinct and let him/her know about the times of daily services and school arrival and dismissal times.
• Protective measures. DHS just published: Potential Indicators, Common Vulnerabilities, and Protective Measures: Religious Facilities. This is an new (October 2015) and excellent overview of facility security and emergency planning. This can be used to set the agenda for your security/building committee to plan for the unexpected. There is also a good table with indicators of suspicious activity. Another new resource is Protective Measures for Enhanced Facility Security. Please review the documents and act accordingly. 
• Security awareness. Law enforcement and Homeland Security leaders recommend that organizations train their staffs and constituencies in security awareness, especially the signs of suspicious behavior — in short, if it just doesn’t look right. If you see something, say something: in New York City (888) NYC-SAFE or elsewhere in NY: (866) SAFE-NYS.
• Active Shooters. Click here for more information on active shooters and armed intruders.
• Suggested Protective Measures
  •  Increase visibility of security and law enforcement personnel in areas adjacent to and in front of security checkpoints to deter unwanted activity;
  • Raise awareness among employees by conducting “all hazards” awareness training;
  • Establish liaison and regular communications with local, state, and federal law enforcement, emergency responders, and public health organizations to enhance information exchange or clarify emergency responses;
  • Report missing or stolen equipment to the proper authorities;
  • Raise community awareness of potential threats and vulnerabilities; and
  • Encourage employees, tenants, and visitors to report anything that appears to be odd or suspicious.
• Click here to subscribe to the JCRC-NY Security and Emergency Preparedness Alert list. Review other JCRC-NY recommended resources here.
•  If you want to arrange for trainings, access other resources or have any questions you can contact JCRC-NY here.